Why Your Project Will Be Late (And What You Can Do About It)
We all estimate tasks and predict schedules, whether it’s forecasting how long it will take to complete a project, how long it will take to hike to a camping spot, or how long it will take to drive to grandma’s house. We all know the basics of scheduling: 1) Build a to-do list, 2) Determine the sequence of tasks, 3) Estimate tasks, 4) Commit arithmetic & calculate completion date. We also know from experience that this doesn’t work as well as we think it should. Most projects are hard pressed to meet their schedule goals, why? It turns out that math has something to do with it. In this surprising (but not shocking) session, Payson Hall will reveal the mathematical truth behind what our intuition tells us about traditional schedules and offer insights to improve estimates and schedules going forward. Participants in this session will learn why traditional schedules trend late. An alternative estimation strategy called 3-point estimates that is less stressful and more useful than traditional estimating. How a process called Monte Carlo simulation can help develop more realistic schedules.
Payson Hall is a former U.S. Army Ranger and consulting project manager for Catalysis Group, Inc. in Sacramento. Formally trained as a software engineer, Payson’s early career included software development, hardware/software system integration, and Independent Verification & Validation. As his career progressed, his role shifted to include increasing project management responsibilities, with a focus on technology projects. Today Payson coaches project managers, teaches project management skills, consults, and performs project reviews in a variety of fields, including transportation, communication, software development, education, financial services, and healthcare. Payson has consulted on projects in both the public and private sectors throughout North America and Europe during his 40-year career. He has published over 250 project management articles, developed numerous project management and problem-solving classes, written a book on project sponsorship, and is a speaker who specializes in demystifying project management topics and communicating important ideas while entertaining audiences.